The Global Geopolitical Tornado


We are entering a pivotal—and perilous—phase in global geopolitics. The lines between diplomacy and commerce have been dangerously blurred. A U.S. president who views foreign policy through the lens of trade deals opens the door for transactional realignments. Radical and opportunistic regimes are quick to recognise this shift.

Nations like Saudi Arabia, Syria, Iran, Pakistan, Turkey and North Korea—long pariahs or problem children in the Western liberal order—are recalibrating. They're not only seeking ideological alignment or resolution of historical grievances. Instead, they see the potential to trade their way out of isolation. Under a Trump-led or Trump-influenced administration, strategic leverage is a matter of deal-making, not diplomacy.

Take Saudi Arabia’s soft rapprochement with Syria: the same regime that brutalised dissenters now sits at the table with Riyadh, despite ideological contradictions—chief among them being the Wahhabi-export agenda. Iran will likely follow suit, sensing that a Trumpian deal may offer economic relief without ideological compromise. Pakistan, too, stands ready to leverage this moment, exploiting fractures in the U.S.-India strategic calculus. It tested India's Threshold of Tolerance on Kashmir and continues to deal with China and Bangladesh to open a new front in the East. 

But here lies a deeper concern for India. The South Asia desk at the State Department, historically susceptible to Cold War inertia, continues to harbour elements inimical to Indian strategic interests. The quiet elevation of Muhammad Yunus and his ecosystem—engineered to stoke subtle unrest in the Northeast—is a deliberate move. It is not coincidental. It is calibrated.

These are not normal times. The international system is in flux, and the storm intensifies as we move toward the volatile window of October 2026 to January 2027. During this period, expect major global recalibrations, flashpoints, and potentially irreversible shifts.

And Trump? He is not the player—he is the piece. Whether he knows it or not, he is being moved on the grand chessboard by actors far more entrenched and calculative. In a world hurtling toward geopolitical entropy, even peace can become a pawn.

Stay alert. The calm, such as it is, is merely the eye of a geopolitical tornado.

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