MILITARY OPTIONS FOR INDIA AMIDST THE LATEST STANDOFF POST PAHALGAM

The PM has made his stand clear. To wipe out terror, it's supporters and territory used for terror attacks. 

Let's explore our options. 

1. Size of Defence Forces

India possesses the world’s second-largest military in terms of active personnel, with over 1.4 million active troops and an equally robust reserve force. The Indian Army’s extensive deployment in Jammu & Kashmir (Northern Command) ensures 7rapid response capability in mountainous terrain. The Air Force and Navy provide strategic depth, but logistics and high-altitude warfare remain crucial.

However, extended engagements strain resources. India must leverage its numerical strength with superior command, terrain familiarity, and integrated theatre commands for effective force application.

2. Economic Disparity

India’s GDP is over $3.7 trillion, significantly higher than Pakistan’s ($370 billion), offering greater fiscal headroom for sustained military operations, technological acquisitions, and wartime logistics. However, this disparity is softened by India’s welfare and development obligations.

Military strategy must balance escalation with economic stability — surgical, time-bound actions would avoid prolonged expenditure, while defense production initiatives (Atmanirbhar Bharat) should be accelerated.

3. Diplomatic Support of Other Countries

India enjoys strategic partnerships with the US, France, Japan, Israel, and Quad allies. Post-Pahalgam, diplomatic support hinges on credible evidence of cross-border terrorism. Any kinetic action will be challenged in UN unless under self-defence as per Article 51 of the UN Charter.

Key moves:

Activate diplomatic channels in UN, G20, and SCO.

Not to be trapped in any Simla agreement  or IWT agreement or Agra declaration fiascos brokered by China, West or Russia. 

Mobilise diaspora influence in Western capitals.

Pre-empt narrative control by exposing hybrid threats and terror links.

4. Covert Operations

Covert actions remain viable and deniable. India’s intelligence agencies and Special Forces can execute:

Targeted neutralization of terror operatives in PoK.

Sabotage of logistic routes, weapon smuggling corridors, and launchpads by use of drones etc. 

Cyber disruption of terror infrastructure and communication networks.

Covert ops offer the advantage of precision and psychological deterrence without overt escalation.

5. Conventional War

India has the conventional edge, but war is neither desired nor feasible without factoring nuclear thresholds. Short, high-intensity engagements (like Operation Parakram lessons) can strain public morale and international goodwill.

If provoked into war, India's aim should be swift, decisive action with clear exit criteria. Key would be:

Limited objective offensives.

Air dominance and disruption of enemy mobilization.

Naval blockade options in the Arabian Sea.

6. Options to Involve Afghanistan and Balochistan

India could indirectly raise strategic costs for Pakistan by:

Supporting diplomatic forums highlighting Baloch and Pashtun grievances.

Offering humanitarian, educational, and tech-based civil support to Baloch activists abroad.

Engaging Afghan stakeholders to resist Pakistani influence via proxy groups.

India must tread cautiously to avoid direct confrontation, but signalling and low-intensity engagement in these regions can stretch Pakistan’s internal focus.

7. Options to Liberate PoK

Liberation of PoK is a declared parliamentary goal but requires:

Massive public, diplomatic, and military preparedness.

Gradual integration through hybrid strategies: psychological ops, information warfare, civil infrastructure targeting, and population engagement.

Military action would need coordination with diplomatic and humanitarian plans post-liberation, avoiding civilian casualties and managing international backlash.

8. Role of Russia, USA, and China

Russia: Traditionally neutral, leaning toward Pakistan due to China’s influence and BRICS balancing. India must use historic ties, defence dependency, and energy cooperation to keep Russia from overt alignment with Pakistan or China.

USA: Strategic partner but transactional. Washington will support India if the terror angle is proven, but will caution against escalation. Indo-US military drills and intelligence sharing must be leveraged.

China: A wildcard — likely to side with Pakistan diplomatically and through indirect military logistics. India must be alert on the LAC while avoiding a two-front conflict. Diplomatic signalling and rapid mobilisation in Ladakh will be critical. China will love to see us hyphenated with Pakistan and Bangladesh and de hyphenated with itself. It would love our markets crashing and all the strategic miles earned over the last 15 years vanish into thin air. Already, Chinese fingerprints are all over Pahalgam attack as far as the intelligence input on Comn equipment  is concerned. 

9. The Political .  Historically,  no government which stands defeated survives. So, expect a change in Pak post war. It may well become an achilees heel for BJP. Who knows how long the war may last. Russia, a nuclear country is still facing resistance from Ukraine after 3 years. As against this conventional situation,  both Pak and 

India are nuclear. Pak may blink and use a tactical low yield bomb against advancing Indian tps in its own territory. 

Now, come to the ME conflict between Israel and Hamas. An sub conventional human  guerilla warfare. Even till date the hostages are not free. Hence, wars may no longer be short, which may work in Pak interest. 

Our own Internal political polarisation is well known. How long this nationalism last is a moot point. Opposition will soon start baying for Modi's blood. 

The status of JnK will change for sure. With PoK added or would Kashmir again becoming a thorn in the flesh. It's a catch 22. 

10. Bangladesh Situation. With an active adversary in the East, we may well have trouble from a new front. Any setback can have long term implications for the Sikkim corridor, Assam and WB. 

Conclusion

India must adopt a calibrated multi-domain strategy: 

> diplomatic primacy to keep the sanctions away and trade routed open, and support for anti terror ops intact 

> covert retaliation to target terror leadership and open new fronts from it's west. 

> narrative control to have a psychological edge, and 

> readiness for escalation if required. Long-term, India must invest in asymmetric warfare, AI-based surveillance, civil resilience, and defence diplomacy and atmanirbharta. 

The road to peace must be paved with strength, patience, and strategic depth — guided by Chanakyan prudence and backed by national unity. India must be wary of the lessons of both recent conflicts involving Russia and Israel. 

Whatever course it chooses it must be different from all our previous options, which have not proven effective.